The above table is the ‘current value
(2014) of USD $1000 of Berkshire stock purchased in a given year’ (Source –
Business Insider). I tried to go on a fact finding mission from the table &
here are the results…
$1000 invested in 1964 with Warren
Buffet is now (2014) valued at $11.64 Million. That is 50 years of compounding
at 21.6% CAGR vs 9.9% on the S&P 500.
The tonnes of money was made between the
holding period years 30 - 50 π. That is what compounding
is. It will not deliver anything in 3, 5 & 10 years or more. Berkshire never paid out any Dividends.
Everything it delivered was 'Growth'. The stock lost more than 50% of
its value 3 times in the 50 year period. And countless times between 25 - 30%
or more. Imagine someone selling it off, every time it fell π.
The best CAGR returns were made by
investors who gave him money during 1964 & 1975 & still holding onto
him.(20.15% - 23.29%). The worst time to invest would have been between 1997 & 2006.
An investor would have earned a single digit CAGR, until 2014. The in-between
year investors (1975 - 1997) earned anywhere between a lower double digit to a
higher double digit (10.13% - 19.81%).
2004 - 14, he delivered 9.7% vs 5.8% for
the S&P 500....He still outperformed π. The average American inflation for this 50 year period
was 3.98%.
So, the next time; a neighbor, a
colleague, a friend, a fund manager, a banker, a wealth manager, a financial
adviser or one's cook - claim to have delivered a CAGR of 20% ........then, one
would have discovered the 'Next Warren Buffet' π
This is what is CAGR (Compounded Annual
Growth Rate). A 'stealth total return' and the only return that an investor
ever needs to bother about. The world's best investor makes 21.6% CAGR for 50
years. Can we do better ???
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