Saturday, 27 August 2016

The above table is the ‘current value (2014) of USD $1000 of Berkshire stock purchased in a given year’ (Source – Business Insider). I tried to go on a fact finding mission from the table & here are the results…

$1000 invested in 1964 with Warren Buffet is now (2014) valued at $11.64 Million. That is 50 years of compounding at 21.6% CAGR vs 9.9% on the S&P 500.

The tonnes of money was made between the holding period years 30 - 50 πŸ˜€. That is what compounding is. It will not deliver anything in 3, 5 & 10 years or more. Berkshire never paid out any Dividends. Everything it delivered was 'Growth'. The stock lost more than 50% of its value 3 times in the 50 year period. And countless times between 25 - 30% or more. Imagine someone selling it off, every time it fell πŸ˜‚.

The best CAGR returns were made by investors who gave him money during 1964 & 1975 & still holding onto him.(20.15% - 23.29%). The worst time to invest would have been between 1997 & 2006. An investor would have earned a single digit CAGR, until 2014. The in-between year investors (1975 - 1997) earned anywhere between a lower double digit to a higher double digit (10.13% - 19.81%).

2004 - 14, he delivered 9.7% vs 5.8% for the S&P 500....He still outperformed πŸ˜€. The average American inflation for this 50 year period was 3.98%.

So, the next time; a neighbor, a colleague, a friend, a fund manager, a banker, a wealth manager, a financial adviser or one's cook - claim to have delivered a CAGR of 20% ........then, one would have discovered the 'Next Warren Buffet' πŸ™‚


This is what is CAGR (Compounded Annual Growth Rate). A 'stealth total return' and the only return that an investor ever needs to bother about. The world's best investor makes 21.6% CAGR for 50 years. Can we do better ???

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