_*BSE Sensex, Yearly Open, High, Low & Close and An Academic perspective*_

Some very interesting data point that I culled out yesterday, out if an academic interest.

Truly nice output ☺️

24 years of data on BSE Sensex 

Yearly Open 

Yearly High

Yearly Low

Yearly Close 

_Calendar Year - 1 Jan to 31 Dec_

_*66.66% probability of making positive returns on the Index, by the year end, if we invest on 1 Jan of every year*_

👆🏼 This is a revelation in itself...based on historical trend for 24 years 😀

_*If we invest at the highest point within a year...50% probability of ending lower on 31 Dec or 45.83% of ending flat (at the highest point)*_

👆🏼This is not bad either, when one invests at the worst possible time within a year 

Now.....

_*95.83% probability that one ends UP beautifully, if they can get to invest at the bottom of the market & only about 4% probability that they'll end flat*_

👆🏼 This is truly revealing

In this scenario, If you see the gains from the bottom in the year to 31 Dec close....they are not small.

The least gains being 2.11% & 5.17% an the rest of the years, ending with reasonable high double digit growth from the yearly bottom.

_*THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS......WHO CAN CALL THE BOTTOM, AT THAT PARTICULAR TIME*_.......not possible, every year and year after year 🙂

So, based on this historical trend....can we invest into BSE Sensex on the 1 st of Jan every year? 😀.... I have a 67% probability of ending high by 31 st Dec of that year 😂😂😂

_*This was a pure academic study for me....Equities are for long, at the end of the day*_